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Beranda / AUDCAD / FOREX

AUD/CAD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Guide

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In this blog post, we dive into a detailed technical analysis of the AUD/CAD currency pair, ideal for traders working on the 1‑hour (H1) timeframe. With AUD/CAD currently trading around 0.8870 and showing short‑term bullish momentum, we’ll explore everything you need—from multiple‑timeframe trend identification and Fibonacci levels to key support/resistance zones and indicator readings. You’ll also get a clear entry strategy, risk management plan, and guidelines on trade duration, helping you execute with confidence and discipline.

AUD/CAD bullish trend chart with key support and resistance levels

Market Overview

Current Price & Trend

  • Price: 0.88701
  • Short‑Term Trend: Bullish on H1, H4, and Daily charts.
  • Key Drivers: Positive momentum as price sits above MA5, MA20, and MA200 on H1; RSI at 61.4 indicating room to run before overbought.

Upcoming Events

  • Australia: PMI Flash (Manufacturing, Services, Composite) on April 22, 2025
  • Canada: Producer Price Inflation MoM on April 22; Retail Sales on April 25; Federal Election on April 30, 2025

These releases can introduce volatility. Plan to close or hedge positions ahead of high‑impact data.

Multiple‑Timeframe Trend Analysis

  1. H1 (1‑Hour):
    • Price > MA5 (0.8870) and MA20 (0.8856)
    • RSI (14) at 61 suggesting bullish momentum
  2. H4 (4‑Hour):
    • Trading between pivot PP (0.8867) and R1 (0.8879)
    • MACD remains above its signal line
  3. D1 (Daily):
    • Price above R2 (0.8869) nearing R3 (0.8884)
    • Consistent higher highs and higher lows
  4. W1 (Weekly):
    • Near resistance R1 (0.8901) but still above pivot (0.8807)
  5. MN (Monthly):
    • Slightly bearish historically but within a consolidation zone

This alignment shows strong short‑ to medium‑term bullish bias, though monthly chart suggests potential for longer‑term range trading.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

  • Primary Support (Daily S1): 0.8814
  • Primary Resistance (Daily R3): 0.8884

A break above 0.8884 could open a run toward 0.8900–0.8910. Conversely, a drop below 0.8860 may prompt a pullback to 0.8845.

Technical Indicator Snapshot

  • RSI (14): 61.4 (Bullish, not overbought)
  • MACD (12,26): Positive histogram, signal line crossover bullish
  • Stochastic (14,3,3): 76.7 (Approaching overbought)
  • ATR (14): 0.0016 (Low volatility, steady moves)
  • Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band—bullish but watch for squeeze

These readings confirm bullish bias but warn of a possible corrective pullback if Stochastic turns down from overbought.

Trading Strategy & Signals

  1. Entry
    • Aggressive: Market buy at 0.88701
    • Conservative: Wait for pullback to ~0.8850 (near H1 MA20)
  2. Stop Loss
    • 0.8849 (just below MA20 on H1; ~21‑pip risk)
  3. Take Profit Targets
    • TP1: 0.8900 (~29 pips)
    • TP2: 0.9000 (~129 pips)
    • TP3: 0.9100 (~229 pips)
  4. Confirmation
    • RSI > 50, MACD histogram positive, price above key MAs
  5. Lot Sizing & Risk
    • Account Size: $100
    • Risk/Trade: $1 (1% of capital)
    • Lot Size: 0.5 micro‑lot (pip value ~$0.10; 21‑pip SL ≈ $2.10 → adjust to risk)
  6. Trade Management
    • Move SL to breakeven upon reaching TP1
    • Trail stop by 10 pips after 20 pips profit

Risk Management & Trade Duration

  • Backtesting Period: 1 year to validate consistency
  • Expected Win Rate: ~60% based on historical setups
  • Volatility Suitability: ATR(14)=0.0016 supports tight SL strategy
  • Valid Until:
    • Analysis valid through April 25, 2025 (post‑PMI & Retail Sales)
    • Close all positions by April 29, 2025, ahead of Canada’s election on April 30, 2025

Conclusion

The AUD/CAD pair exhibits a clear short‑term bullish trend supported by multiple timeframe alignment, positive momentum indicators, and a well‑defined support/resistance structure. Traders with a $100 account can capitalize on the H1 setup by buying near 0.8870–0.8850, using a disciplined SL at 0.8849 and tiered TPs up to 0.9100. Strict risk management—limiting loss to 1% per trade, backtesting over a year, and respecting data‑driven expiration dates—will be crucial for consistent profitability.

Keywords:
AUDCAD, forex trading, technical analysis, support and resistance, RSI, MACD, H1 trading strategy, risk management, backtesting, forex blog.

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